“The future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented.”

Dennis Gabor

Thank you for exploring UP!

It’s a great feeling as a creator when someone takes notice of your work.

We don’t know exactly why you’re here, but hopefully it has to do with you reaching the goals you find most valuable? If so, great. That’s exactly why UP was created.

But first, can we be honest?

Let’s be real: the chances of you achieving everything you want are very low. Maybe 1%? The chances now that you’re getting connected to the UP philosophy and community are slightly higher. Maybe 1.01%? And we can only guess how much higher your chances would be if you participated in UP. Maybe 2%? (This is an empirical question we would love to try to answer in time.)

It’s incredibly hard to accurately model and forecast someone’s odds of successfully achieving their life goals, but a quick examination of history is illuminating. How many people in history achieved everything they ever wanted? Think hard. Can you name anyone? We can’t. Even Alexander the Great failed to conquer the entire world. Not that world domination is a good goal. (But we won’t begrudge you if you’ve at least wondered what it would be like if you were “in charge”.)

Enhancing value-action alignment

UP is based on a belief that we should develop our values and goals to their terminal states and then work strategically to realize them. To actually live a life of congruence between our values and actions. Every action we take that non-optimally advances our values is, at least theoretically, a waste.

Unfortunately all of us waste an extraordinary amount of time and resources. We procrastinate, we self-deceive, we take overly risky bets, we work on the wrong things, we fail unnecessarily, etc.

Human hardware and software isn’t designed for flourishing in 21st century society. That’s admittedly deeply frustrating. But it’s not the end of the story–it’s the beginning. We believe everyone is upgradable. We just have to figure out how.

Make a bet with yourself

We encourage you to make a bet with yourself: 365 days from now, how likely will you have achieved X in your life? Y? And Z?

Think very, very hard about everything you want to do with your life in the next year and honestly evaluate your odds of success. Think of all of the good and bad things that may influence your outcomes over the next year. Think of how successful or unsuccessful you were last year. Imagine you’re a bookie evaluating the odds of a horse winning a race. And remember only one horse will win.

Whatever you predict, take a self-video describing the bet to your future self. Also set a calendar reminder to review and evaluate your prediction. Do this exercise in the next 60 seconds, or you will likely never get to it. (This comes from more than two decades of experience working with thousands of people. Please just do it now.)

We love you, but we’re betting against you

We sincerely hope you will achieve all of your goals (as long as they’re ethical). You’re human and have values that we likely share.

But to be perfectly honest, we’re betting against you. If you’re the kind of person that’s motivated by proving someone wrong, please consider this a personal challenge! Go make it happen. And if you’re really confident in yourself, we’d be happy to make a stickK bet with you.

Hint: taking huge amounts of strategic, disciplined action over the next 8,760 hours with an eye towards expected value and intelligently capitalizing on comparative advantage will likely help.

How to start?

That depends enormously on you. Figuring out what to do and in what order is radically complicated. But as general advice, the following would be a good start:

  1. Schedule a personal hackathon to clarify your goals and write realistic, evidence-based plans to achieve them.
  2. Use spaced repetition software to study everything on the Learn page. Update your plans as you learn more.
  3. Begin executing your plans. Update them as reality teaches you what works and what doesn’t.
  4. Set a call to talk high-level strategy with one of our team members.

In a year…

In a year from now if UP makes sense for you, great. But if the alternatives make more sense, that’s perfectly fine, too. It’s not the right program for 99% of people, for a number of good reasons. We encourage you to just keep moving forward one way or the other.

As a small incentive to take action now, if you do a prediction, evaluate it in a year, and reach out to us to let us know how it went we’ll happily give you a free gift. It’s a surprise, so no asking what it’ll be. Good luck!