Key: Focus on your single highest expected value action at all times

To do this, the following help:

  • Develop and regularly update a strategic plan around your best value creation opportunities
    • Incorporate scope sensitive thinking
    • Incorporate marginal value 
    • Incorporate tractability
    • Consider counterfactuals
    • Master 1-2 high growth areas with little competition
      • Develop significant comparative advantage
  • Develop the ability to create accurate, predictive models
    • Model yourself regularly
      • Values
      • Capacity
      • Motivation
    • Model the world regularly
      • Value creation
      • People (personal values)
      • Organizations (business models)
      • Markets (market trends)
  • Live recursive self-improvement (a.k.a., metagrowth)
    • Master instrumental rationality
      • Develop the ability to “get shit done”
    • Measure everything critical
    • Automate and ritualize as much low-value action as possible
    • Optimize your environment
    • Eliminate bottlenecks to your highest possible performance
      • Financial
      • Cognitive
      • Emotional
      • Physical
        • Stay alive and healthy as long as possible

Note: these are not mutually exclusive actions, what each action entails is difficult to define, we doubt this model as a whole is “accurate” (although it may be useful), and depending on your definition of “winning” the best approach may vary greatly from person to person.